Florida's Early Vote Is Final: 5,446,799 Ballots Cast, Republicans 40.2 Percent, Democrats 37.8
Election Eve in Florida starts from a record early electorate: more than 5.44 million ballots are already in - 3.47 million cast in person and 1.98 million by mail - and Tuesday's voters will decide the rest.
Florida goes into Election Day with more than 5.44 million votes already cast. The On Point Politics early-vote tracker, built from state election office counts as of November 2, puts the total at 5,446,799 ballots: 3,468,104 cast in person during early voting and 1,978,695 returned by mail. That is 100 percent of the early ballots cast in all of 2022, at a pace the tracker measures at 11 percent ahead of that cycle, and equal to 69.9 percent of Florida's total 2022 turnout before a single Election Day vote is counted.
By registration, Republicans cast 40.2 percent of the early ballots, Democrats 37.8 percent, and voters with no party affiliation or a minor party 22.0 percent - a Republican edge of about 2.4 points. The official Florida Division of Elections file compiled by PollingSource through November 1 tells the same story in slightly earlier numbers: 5,408,792 ballots, Republicans at 40.24 percent and Democrats at 37.77 percent, for an overall Republican lead of 2.5 points - notably thinner than the 6.7-point Republican lead at the same point in 2022. Registration is not a vote choice, and neither tracker claims to know how anyone voted.
For Tampa Bay, the arithmetic is the story of Tuesday. Hillsborough and Pinellas voters who have not yet voted have exactly one route left: their assigned precinct, 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Tuesday, November 3, with any mail ballot hand-delivered to the Supervisor of Elections office by 7 p.m. instead of mailed. With the early electorate this large and the party split this close, Election Day turnout in the Tampa Bay bellwether counties is positioned to decide Florida's closest statewide races.
